DSTG Bayesian flight-path analysis

Australia’s DSTG applied Bayesian methods to the Inmarsat observations, aircraft performance, and assumed autopilot modes to produce a posterior probability along the 7th arc. The method is the intellectual core of “we searched here because the maths said so.” It is also why later teams can move the box without discarding SATCOM: change the end-of-flight assumption (straight cruise until fuel exhaustion vs. manoeuvre vs. glide) and the posterior slides along the arc. DSTG’s work is technical, not a cockpit narrative.