Fuel exhaustion, then uncontrolled descent at the 7th arc
Prevailing official end-of-flight model
After a long southern cruise the aircraft flames out near 00:19 UTC, the SDU logs on from APU/emergency power, and the aeroplane leaves controlled flight. Wreckage should lie on or near the 7th arc.
This is the ATSB/DSTG working model that sited the 2014–2017 box: dual engine flame-out, autopilot dropout, steep descent. It fits the 00:19 aircraft-initiated log-on, the failed 01:16 interrogation, the absence of ELT, and (broadly) debris drift to Africa. It does not explain the turn-back or the communications dropout. End-of-flight dynamics remain the reason later boxes move tens of kilometres off the arc.
Sources
- ATSB AE-2014-054
- Malaysian 2018 report
Related
The 00:19 log-on is probable fuel exhaustion
The 7th arc
00:19:29 UTC aircraft-initiated log-on
Controlled descent / ditching
Someone still flying at the end
Handshake 7 — aircraft-initiated log-on
00:19:29 UTC · probable fuel exhaustion
DSTG Bayesian flight-path analysis
Defence Science and Technology Group, Australia
CSIRO debris-drift studies
Griffin, Oke, et al. · 2016–2017
No 406 MHz ELT detection
Emergency locator transmitter never heard